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Hurricane and Tropical Storm Tracking 2006

The 2006 Hurricane Season

Opening Season Preamble

4th June, 2006

We're now four days into the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and although conditions are currently looking somewhat unfavourable for development, a system in the south-western Caribbean has been flexing it's muscles. Nothing is expected to come of it, but the fact that a system in early June has caused some excitement among weather-watchers has to be a worry in a season that has been widely forecast to see above average tropical activity.

The eastern Pacific basin has already seen Tropical Storm Aletta as early as the 27th May, and another system has been spinning-up recently. Let's hope this is not a sign of things to come in the Atlantic basin.

Here's the list of 2006 contenders.

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce,
Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William

2006 Hurricane and Tropical Storm News

Well, it's beginning to look like the 2006 Hurricane Season is going to end on a damp squib, with no named storms since the 2nd October. The following table shows the breakdown of these storms

Tropical Storm Isaac has passed Newfoundland and continues to track to the northeast at 40 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Isaac has lost it's tropical characteristics and become extra-tropical. The NHC have ceased reporting on Isaac, so this will be the last report and final tracking map.

Hurricane Isaac reverted to a tropical storm overnight, and has continued to track to the north-northeast at 41 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Isaac is expected to affect coastal parts of Newfoundland today before going extra-tropical.

Hurricane Isaac has been tracking to the north-northeast at 26 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Isaac may still affect Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later tomorrow, but only as a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Isaac becomes the fifth hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane Isaac is tracking to the northwest at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Isaac is still forecast by the NHC to 'pass well east of Bermuda'. There is a possibility that Isaac may affect Nova Scotia and Newfoundland later in the period. We will monitor that.

Tropical Storm Isaac is very close to becoming a hurricane. Isaac is tracking to the west-northwest at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Isaac is forecast by the NHC to 'pass well east of Bermuda'.

Tropical Storm Isaac is tracking to the west-northwest at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Isaac continues to look better organized, and it continues to track towards Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Isaac is tracking to the west-northwest towards Bermuda at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Isaac shows distinctly better organization on the latest pass, and could still see some further strengthening during the next 24 hours. The NHC are still insisting that Isaac is not expected to threaten land, although the turn to west-northwest was unexpected.

Tropical Storm Isaac continues to track to the northwest towards Bermuda at 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Isaac could see some further strengthening during the next 24 hours, although it is still not expected to threaten land.

Tropical Depression Nine has indeed become Tropical Storm Isaac. Isaac is tracking northwest towards Bermuda at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. According to the NHC, Isaac is expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours, although it is not expected to threaten land.

Tropical Depression Nine, and Tropical Storm Isaac elect, has been slowly tracking up towards Bermuda from the southeast. According to the latest NHC report, Nine is very nearly a tropical storm, which will make it the ninth storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We will continue to closely monitor Nine, and report on it's status, although tracking of this storm seems unlikely due to it's projected path not affecting land. We will continue to just watch it for now and provide maps on the maps page.

Hurricane Helene is approximately 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda, and the NHC expect it to stay several hundred miles east of the island, and be no threat to land. Helene's maximum sustained winds are close to 80 mph, and the NHC expect no changes over the coming 24 hours. Since Helene is no threat to land, all tracking will now cease. Should Helene become a threat in the coming days, tracking will recommence.

Hurricane Helene is currently jogging around in the Atlantic, approximately 750 miles southeast of Bermuda. Helene has maximum sustained winds of 110mph. The NHC are saying that Helene has already made a turn to the northwest, although the NavyMil suggests by the latest satellite overpass that it is either stationary or still moving west. We will have to wait and see.

Hurricane Gordon has de-intensified since earlier today and now has sustained winds of 85mph as it approaches the Azores. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the east at 33mph.

Hurricane Helene reverts to a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110mph. Helene is still on the more westerly track, although the NHC are still anticipating a turn to the north. Helene is moving to the west-northwest at a steady 9mph.

Hurricane Gordon increased intensity again and now has sustained winds of 100mph as it approaches the Azores. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the east at 28mph, and is forecast to arrive in the Azores today.

Hurricane Helene remains a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115mph and the very prominent eye feature. Helene is still on the more westerly track, although the NHC are anticipating a turn to the north. Helene is moving to the west-northwest at 8mph, and is not expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Gordon increased intensity again and has sustained winds of 90mph. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the east-northeast at 22mph in the middle of the Atlantic, and is forecast to arrive near the Azores on Tuesday.

Hurricane Helene has de-intensified a little, but remains a major hurricane. Maximum sustsained winds are 115mph and the very prominent eye feature still exists. Helene has turned onto a more westerly track for the time being. Helene is moving to the west-northwest at 9mph, and is not expected to strengthen during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Gordon retains it's intensity with sustained winds of 80mph. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the northeast at 20mph in the middle of the Atlantic, and is forecast to arrive over the Azores in the early hours of Wednesday (gmt).

Overnight, Hurricane Helene became the second major hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. With maximum sustsained winds of 120mph and a very prominent eye feature, Helene continues to organize as it takes a more northerly track. Helene is moving to the north-northwest at 7mph, but the NHC expect Helene to turn back towards the west-northwest within the next 12 hours.

Hurricane Gordon has strengthened a little and now has sustained winds of 80mph. Hurricane Gordon is tracking to the northeast at 14mph in the middle of the Atlantic.

Hurricane Helene continues to organize with a prominent eye feature, and has increased in intensity as it tracks towards Bermuda, although south-westerly shear appears to be affecting it, as can be seen in the shortwave image on the left.

Helene is moving to the northwest at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 105mph. The NHC expect Helene to continue this motion for the next couple of days before turning towards the north.

Hurricane Gordon has weakened since yesterday, and now has sustained winds of 90mph. Hurricane Gordon presently remains becalmed in the middle of the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Helene continues to organize, and increase in intensity as it heads west-northwest into the open ocean. Helene is moving at 15mph with maximum sustained winds of 70mph. The NHC expect Helene to become a hurricane by the next advisory. They do not expect Helene to threaten land.

Hurricane Gordon strengthened again yesterday, and has maintained winds of 120mph ever since. This makes Hurricane Gordon a category 3 storm, and the first major hurricane of the season. Gordon is tracking to the northeast at 12mph. It will be no threat to land, and the NHC expect it to revert to a tropical storm by lunchtime on Sunday.

Tropical Depression 8 became Tropical Storm Helene yesterday, the eighth named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Helene is still well to the east, and is moving towards the west-northwest at 16mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

Tropical Storm Gordon became Hurricane Gordon yesterday, the third hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Hurricane Gordon has strengthened again since yesterday and now has winds of 110mph. Gordon is tracking to the north at 12mph. It will be no threat to land.

Tropical Depression 8, soon to become Tropical Storm Helene, is still well to the east and is moving towards the west at 18mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. There is strong easterly shear over this system which is currently holding down the intensity.

Tropical Storm Gordon is moving to the north at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The HNC expect Gordon to become a hurricane soon, but it will not threaten land.

Hurricane Florence has passed Bermuda, and is still packing winds of 90mph as she jets up the east coast.

As expected, the NHC have upgraded Tropical Depression Seven to Tropical Storm Gordon. Gordon is moving to the northwest at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph.

Tropical Storm Florence became Hurricane Florence yesterday evening, and is now tracking to the north at 13mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90mph since yesterday, and further strengthening is expected before reaching Bermuda. The NHC now believe that Florence will pass close to Bermuda around lunchtime on Monday as a Category two Hurricane. Bermuda will most likely be on the clean side of Florence, resulting in the perceived intensity being more than the nominal 90mph.

Tropical Storm Florence is tracking to the northwest at 13mph as it curves around the system to it's northeast. Maximum sustained winds have increased from yesterday to 65mph, and further strengthening is expected between now and reaching Bermuda. The NHC are predicting that Florence will pass over Bermuda around lunchtime on Monday as a Category one Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at at an increased speed of 15mph as it begins to curve around the system to it's north. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50mph, although some strengthening is now expected as it turns towards the northwest, as the NHC had predicted. They are predicting that Florence will be near Bermuda in 72 hours as a 100mph Cat2 Hurricane. Florence is a huge storm, more than 900 miles across, so Bermuda can expect to start feeling the sting in less than 72 hours - maybe 36 hours.

NOTE: The distances from Nasau (Bahamas) have been revised due to inaccuracies in initial plots. Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 9mph. Maximum sustained winds remain at 50mph. Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts. System 92L.Invest off the Florida coast is quite interesting in that it appeared quite suddenly. No movement estimate is yet given, but the maximum winds are 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50mph. The NHC has Florence turning sharply to the north at the end of the 5 day forecast, which will comes as a relief to those of you in the Bahamas. But, be warned, 5 day predictions can be wrong, so be prepared and stay vigilant. Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 13mph. Maximum sustained winds are steady at 45mph. Tropical wave 91L.Invest continues tracking towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to track to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are steady at 45mph. Tropical wave 91L.Invest is approximately 320 miles east of where Florence began. It's moving towards the west with maximum sustained winds of 25kts. Could be another one to watch over the coming week.

Tropical Storm Florence continues to get stronger and is tracking to the west-northwest at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 45mph. The NHC have adjusted the track of Florence, which takes it more westerly than north-westerly. The forecast puts Florence as a 100mph hurricane just to the east of the northern Bahamas in 5 days time.

Despite adverse conditions in the central Atlantic, Tropical Depression SIX becomes the sixth named storm of the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Florence is tracking to the west-northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. Since this is now a named storm, tracking will commence for Tropical Storm Florence. The Google Earth tracking files can be found on the Download Page This is a big storm, approximately 500 miles across and, as such, it bears watching closely.

Tropical Depression SIX tracks west-northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. The NHC don't have much for this during the next couple of days due to currently unfavourable conditions. But, this is a large system that has turned towards a more westerly direction, and conditions are expected to become a lot more favourable for rapid development. With this system pointing directly at the Bahamas and Florida, it has to be taken very seriously indeed. Keep a close watch on it..

Tropical Depression SIX still tracks northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph.

Little change for this reporting period as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves to the northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph. Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land. Little change for this reporting period as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves to the northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 45mph. Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has passed over Cuba and has once again moved out into open water where it can be expected to re-intensify. Ernesto is moving northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds at 45mph. The NHC now have Ernesto remaining as a tropical storm until it comes ashore in South Carolina. Meanwhile, it is expected to enter the keys this evening then sweep up the eastern coast of Florida into Wednesday evening as a 65mph tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has almost passed over Cuba. Ernesto is moving northwest at 13mph with maximum sustained winds still at 40mph. The NHC have cooled their 3 day forecast somewhat. They now believe that Ernesto will brush the eastern coast of Florida late Tuesday/early Wednesday as a 70mph tropical storm, then head offshore towards South Carolina. They expect it to make landfall there as a category 1 hurricane. Florida could almost be off the hook, especially if Ernesto decides to make a further turn towards the east.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is now just a borderline tropical storm as it passes over Cuba. Ernesto is moving northwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of just 40mph, and could briefly revert to being a tropical depression until clearing land. But don't become complacent. The NHC still expect it to re-intensify back to a hurricane as it starts to move over open water, and Florida can expect to see maximum sustaind winds of around 85mph with stronger gusts.

Tropical Storm Ernesto has been knocked back again as it approaches Cuba. Ernesto is moving northwest at 12mph with sustained winds of 50mph, and is expected to remain as a tropical storm until clearing Cuba sometime early morning on Tuesday. The NHC then expect it to re-intensify back to a hurricane before snaking it's way up Florida from south to north on Wednesday morning. Florida entry and exit points appear to be around Key Largo and south of Jacksonville. Maximum estimated windspeed over Florida is expected to be around 85mph with stronger gusts.

Hurricane Ernesto has had the wind taken out of it's sails as it lashed Haiti. It has been knocked back to a tropical storm with winds of 60mph, and is moving towards the northwest at 8mph. The NHC expect it to re-intensify as it begins to move over open water again.

Hurricane Ernesto is moving towards the northwest at 9mph with winds of 75mph. The NHC track now looks more northerly than previously, which will take it on a track that almost parallels the west Florida coastline, putting the coast on the clean side. This will obviously have more of an impact, and also affect more areas than a straight-across path. Floridians need to take care with this one.. Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land.

At the 5am NHC advisory, Tropical Storm Ernesto was moving towards the west-northwest at 9mph with winds of 70mph. Four minutes later, an air force reconaissance plane reported winds of 75mph, making Ernesto the first hurricane of the 2006 Hurricane Season. The 5 day extended NHC forecast now sees Ernesto turning northeast and making landfall over mid Florida by lunchtime Thursday as a 100kt hurricane. Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land.

Tropical Storm Ernesto's track has been updated by the NHC after a hurricane hunter found Ernesto to be somewhat further east-northeast than expected. Intensity was also up on expected and is now set at 60mph. Ernesto is moving towards the west-northwest at 13mph and could be upgraded to a hurricane shortly after passing over Jamaica on Sunday afternoon. The 5 day extended NHC forecast has Ernesto in the GOM as a Cat3, 105kt hurricane at the end of the period. Note: These pages will be updated every 6 hours whilst Ernesto continues to threaten land.

Looking very broad and ragged, Tropical Storm Alberto has, nevertheless, increased in intensity over the last 12 hours. Alberto is moving to the north-northeast at 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. NHC still have Alberto crossing just to the south of the Big Bend, at which time they expect it to be tracking to the northeast.

Despite being strongly sheared from the southwest, Tropical Storm Alberto's appearance over the last six hours has improved somewhat. This can be seen in the latest short visible image. That said, the NHC have not changed their position on Alberto since the last advisory, and still have Alberto remaining at it's current intensity for the next 24 hours. A lot of rain has been falling over Florida, bringing some welcome relief to residents that have been going through a long dry spell.

Tropical Depression One has now intensified to become the first named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Alberto. Alberto looks much better organised since entering the GOM overnight, with it's visible cloud banding clear to see. Convection is still well to the east of the center and is likely to remain there until the westerly shear eases. This system is over the warmer waters of the Gulf, away from the shelf, so some intensification could be expected over the next 24 hours, although the NHC are not currently going out on a limb and stating that. The NHC expect Alberto to continue on it north-westerly track initially, then make a turn the north and northeast later. Alberto still looks likely to pass over the Big Bend and northernmost Florida as the models were predicting. This will result in high levels of precipitation - just what the doctor ordered. Current speed is 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 knots.