Well, now that Zeta has gone I think it's about time to wind up the 2005 Season, and sign-off on Zeta.

Zeta brought to an end a record breaking, extended 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season that the NHC would probably like to forget. As the NHC stated in their final advisory for Zeta, '...the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season ends with a record breaking storm'. Tropical Storm Zeta surpassed the 1954 season's Alice #2 as the longest-lived tropical cyclone to form in December and cross over into the next year. Zeta was the longest-lived January tropical cyclone. Zeta also helped the 2005 Hurricane Season to amass the largest amount of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), surpassing the 1950 season.

All in all, a long and dramatic season, with more than enough extreme tropical weather to keep even the most jaded hurricane hunter satisfied. And, on the other side of the coin, far too much activity for those folk that live in the hurricane-prone areas - and I'm sure we all still feel for those that took the tragic losses.

Tropical Storm Zeta has succumbed, again, to the hostile conditions and becomes a tropical depression. But this time Zeta should stay down as it is eaten away by a swathe of much drier air moving across it from the west. That, together with a sharp cold front moving in quickly from the west, should put an end to Zeta once and for all. Therefore, this will be the final tracking map for Zeta, I swear...

Tropical Storm Zeta is once again hanging onto it's tropical status by the skin of it's teeth. The satellite imagery doesn't look too good at the moment, and I believe it took a brave call by the NHC forecaster to refrain from downgrading it. It's looking very ragged, with not much discernible banding and very little convection, much the way it looked like last night at about the same time. I fear the end is drawing nigh for Zeta, and will be surprised to see it last out the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical cyclone.

You've heard of the boxer being down and out? Well, Tropical Storm Zeta was down, but apparently not out. Zeta has bounced back and regained tropical storm status, and is now moving northwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 40mph. A short-lived revival I believe.

Tropical Storm Zeta has finally been overcome by the hostile environment in the north Atlantic, and has succumbed to the persistent 50kts of vertical shear that it has been encountering. Zeta is moving to the west at 12mph with sustained winds of 35mph. This means that Zeta is now officially Tropical Depression Zeta, and that it never made it to that elusive hurricane status as it had threatened to do on many occasions. Tropical Depression Zeta is now forecast to make a turn to the northwest, then head in that direction towards Bermuda for the next three days. I suppose there is still some possibility that Zeta might again strengthen on that track, if conditions become significantly more conducive to development, so we'll continue to watch it for any signs of re-intensification.

Zeta turned out to be another forecasters nightmare for the NHC team, and I'm sure they've learned a lot from the experience. Since this site only tracks named storms, this is the final tracking map for Zeta. Should Zeta once again become a tropical storm or hurricane over the next few days, then this site will recommence tracking. Otherwise, Adieu Zeta!

Tropical Storm Zeta has weakened again since the last advisory and now has sustained winds of 50mph. The NHC believe that this is a trend, and forecast Zeta to continue to weaken over the next 48 hours as dry air and further shear take their toll. Zeta continues to track to the west at 8mph, but is expected to turn to the northwest. Since Zeta is now a shallow system they expect it to be steered by the low level flow between the high pressure system and an approaching cold front.

Tropical Storm Zeta has weakened a tad since the last advisory. Zeta now has sustained winds of 60mph and is tracking west at 7mph. The current weather pattern is complicated, and looks to be a real challenge for the NHC forecasters over the next couple of days as various features move quickly around the north Atlantic. But Hurricane Zeta has shown itself to be a resilient system, with the ability to take the hits from strong westerlies and shear then bounce back and consolidate.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 5mph, and retains it's previous intensity of 65mph. The NHC believe that Zeta is possibly more intense than the 55kts that they have assigned, that there is moderate convection near the center, and that the outflow is established with no strong shear. They are also beginning to believe that the GFDL may be correct in it's assertion that Zeta will become a hurricane. Nevertheless, they are once again taking the cautious approach and sticking with 55kts for the next 24 to 36 hours.

At 1600est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west at 5mph, and is still holding on to it's 65mph sustained winds. The official forecast says that Zeta is moving west, but in fact, according to the plot, Zeta is now moving more towards the northwest. Now, whether this is a temporary motion or whether this is the beginning of Zeta's predicted turn to the north I cannot be sure. We will need to wait for the next advisory to confirm this.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 5mph and is maintaining it's maximum sustained winds of 65mph. The forecast is for shear to decrease during the next period, but the NHC does not expect Zeta to increase in intensity, we'll probably just see some consolidation, and maybe get the low level circulation synchronized with the upper convection currently offset to the northeast. Assuming this happens, then we may get a little intensification next period, although the NHC don't appear to be prepared to go out on a limb about that for the moment.

At 0400est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west-southwest at 2mph and has intensified again as it moves past the trough and begins to experience less shear. Zeta's winds are now 65mph, with the reasonable chance of further intensification. The storm is still being undercut somewhat from the southwest, and convection is offset from the center to the northeast. But, Zeta is in good shape now, and the possibility exists that conditions could improve slightly over the next 24 hours, culminating in Zeta becoming a hurricane. In the words of the NHC; 'NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER FORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY'.

At 2200est Tropical Storm Zeta is moving west at 2mph and intensifying, much to the chagrin of the NHC; '...ZETA STRENGTHENED AGAINST ALL ODDS AND FORECASTS...'. Winds are now up to 60mph, and Zeta looks much better this evening as witnessed by the 2245z 91ghz image above. Just look at the very cold cloud tops to the north (red) that are beginning to wrap around an eye-like feature (green). I can understand the consternation at the NHC, I've seen it before with Epsilon. They seemed like they were pulling their hair out at times, as it continued to confound them for days. Just take a look at how Zeta strengthens, then pushes it's way through the trough that moves in from the west between 2100z and 0300z. Here's the Intellicast view of it. Quite astonishing. And the forecaster has finally tipped his hat to the GFDL model; 'A BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA ALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES IT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE HURRICANE.'

At 1600est Tropical Storm Zeta still pushing west-southwest at 7mph. These sub-tropical storms are now beginning to irritate the forecasters at the NHC - quote: 'CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS ZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC'. As soon as Zeta appears to be on it's last legs it gives another burst of convection, and surprises them again. They really need to get reconnaissance out to at least one of these systems in order to gain more of an understanding of what makes them tick. Apparently, Zeta is still being subjected to heavy shear with still more to come, and it is inconceivable to the NHC that a storm is able to function under such extreme conditions. It is going to come as more than a little surprise if Zeta intensifies to hurricane status during tonight, just as the GFDL model has been predicting all along.

At 1000est Tropical Storm Zeta is still pushing to the west-southwest at 8mph with sustained winds of 50mph. This motion is expected to continue, and the NHC are still predicting that Zeta will expire in 24 hours - they have been saying this for the last 2 days. As with Epsilon, the other pain in the NHC's backside, Tropical Storm Zeta just refuses to die, and the longer it pushes west the more chance it has of becoming a hurricane - my opinion only.

NOTE: The NHC maps are now back.

Tropical Storm Zeta still meandering in a large anti clockwise pattern in the middle of the North Atlantic. Shear has reduced since the last advisory and convection has become somewhat stronger, although intensity is still judged to be in the 50mph range. Further shear is expected to again take the wind out of the sails of Zeta over the next 12 hours, which could ultimately lead to it's demise.

A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL

NOTE: It looks as if the NHC have discontinued producing prediction maps as of 0400est.

Tropical Storm Zeta still meanders in the middle of the North Atlantic with little change over the last 12 hours. Zeta is still being impacted by shear but less so than 24 hours ago, and the thinking now is that Zeta could go on milling around for quite a while longer. One of the computer models is predicting that Zeta becomes a hurricane in 3 to 4 days, although the NHC are discounting this scenario for the time being. Zeta appears to be in an area of poor steering so it's motion is expected to be erratic, although a general motion towards the west is forecast.

Tropical Storm Zeta has begun to meander in the middle of the Atlantic with some movement to the south-southeast of it's last position. The signature has slowly deteriorated as shear has eaten into it's low level circulation on the west side. The NHC expect this weakening to continue for the next couple of days before Tropical Storm Zeta is absorbed by a frontal trough from the west. Zeta's winds are currently 50mph, and a decrease in intensity is expected to follow shortly.

Tropical Storm Zeta has made the predicted turn to the west, but the NHC have revised their thinking on what they expect Zeta to do over the next couple of days. As Zeta moves towards the west, it's center will become increasingly exposed to the increasing westerlies which will limit strong convection on that side, although convection on the eastern side remains strong. It is now known that the wind field is rather small, as reported by a ship that passed within 40 nautical miles of Zeta, and those winds were reported as being no higher than 34kts. A frontal system 700 miles to the northwest could turn Zeta sharply northwards assuming that Zeta can manage to hold on for that long. So, based on the new observations and other data, Tropical Storm Zeta's time could well be shorter than was thought on the previous advisory.

Tropical Storm Zeta has become better organized, according to the NHC, as can be seen on the 37Gh TRMM image. Still tracking northwest with winds up from 50 to 60mph, Zeta has deep convection over it's low-level center and cold cloud tops, all good signs. The NHC believes that Zeta's intensity could be even higher than quoted, with sustained winds of up to 60kts, but they remain cautious and suggest they may up the figure at the next advisory. They also believe that Zeta may last longer than expected and take a more westerly or southwesterly track. Another concern that they have is that the wind shear that has been used up to now may be too high, since Zeta is a relatively shallow system, and this could be another factor that decides on how much further Zeta will be able to develop over the coming hours.

Tropical Storm Zeta still tracking northwest at 7mph with sustained winds of 50mph.

Tropical Storm Zeta finally makes an appearance, and just in time before the year runs out. Zeta formed out of a feature in the eastern Atlantic that appeared a couple of days ago, and in a similar area to Hurricane Vince, about 1000 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Tropical Storm Zeta is currently tracking to the northwest at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. This is the latest time in the year that a tropical system has ever formed, making Hurricane - elect Zeta yet another record breaker.

Well, it looks as if nothing wicked this way cometh, at least not for now. It's beginning to look as if Hurricane Epsilon is about to become the last official storm of the 2005 Hurricane Season. And, with no Hurricane Zeta to worry about, that's the last of the Greek alphabet we'll be using for a while. As of the 1st January 2006, the first named storm that appears will be given the name Alberto. And those that follow will take the following names Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William . Here's looking forward to a quiet New Year!

Zeta to-be finally met it's match this afternoon as it came up against the limit of it's westerly motion, and was flattened by the trough. And, that looks as if it might be the end of the show for the time being. There's still the possibility of another cut-off low over the next few days, although the models don't appear to give it much chance, and that's not surprising now considering how late into the year we are. No, I think we could be going into a slow spell that will hopefully last until June! But, we'll be watching, and if anything that looks remotely like Zeta turns up between now and year-end, then we'll track it.

Well, it looks like the cut off low has had it's shot at becoming Zeta and failed. It was looking quite close to being a classifiable system three hours before this image, but as we can now see, time has run out as it gets ever closer to the trough. Take a look at the image now (051213_1500z), then check out how it looked around 9am on the Intellicast. Back then, it was fully free of the low and moving west under it's own steam. Now look how it's been squished by the trough into a sort of north-south ellipse. This signals the end of Hurricane Zeta to-be within the next 24 hours. Good effort, but ultimately not enough time, and a bit too far north for it's own good.

The low appears to have cut off completely from the associated fronts as of the 0000z Intellicast. That's promising. So was the convection that was seen around the core on the 2100z, even though it was a bit on the weak side. The bad news is the front moving in from the west in the next few days. If Zeta to-be does not get a move on, then it could be game over in a couple of days.

All is quiet at the moment. There is no current tropical activity within the Atlantic Basin. Hurricane Epsilon is long gone, and could be the last storm we see this season, although some of the computer models are showing the possibility of another cut-off low similar to Epsilon and Delta during the next week. Could we really get to see Hurricane Zeta before the end of the year?

All Hurricane Epsilon news has now been archived to the Hurricane Epsilon Tracking Page. All hurricanes and tropical storms that have been tracked by this site are archived on the relevant tracking pages. Links to these tracking pages can be found in the top table on this page. Just click on any of the links under Epsilon, Delta etc., or, for Epsilon, just click on the link below.

Click here for previous Epsilon Reports. Don't forget, always read news from bottom to top.

Tropical Storm Epsilon completely fell apart overnight and was downgraded by the NHC to tropical depression at the last 11am advisory. Epsilon had a good run, a very good run considering the time of the year and the environment it was having to work with. Accordingly, the 4am advisory was the final map for Hurricane Epsilon.

Discussion

Epsilon has been very tough on the NHC, a lot tougher than they would probably have imagined. Lets face it, who could believe that a storm that comes into existence at the end of November, in the middle of the Atlantic, would hang around for ten days? The NHC were right to be dismissive when they predicted it would be over by the 3rd December as it went extratropical; the synoptic at the time supported that view. But, although Epsilon had indeed turned towards the northeast by the 2nd December, and the NHC were predicting extratropical transition within 2 days, Epsilon bounced back after a brief bad spell. By 10am on the 2nd, Epsilon attained hurricane status, much to the chagrin of the NHC...

"DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY ...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER ...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE"

Well, this was quite novel, just about the time when Epsilon was supposed to be going extratropical, we had a very well organised category 1 hurricane with a well defined eye. Now, that's not something that the NHC were expecting, and they stuck to their guns by stating that Epsilon would be extratropical within 24 hours, and I believe that was just a case of pure optimism.

In order to press home the point that the NHC were dismissive of Epsilon right from the off, and to enforce the statement that, at times, they were bordering on the realms of sheer optimism more than anything else, here are a few statistics gleaned from the NHC advisories :

Up to the point of Epsilon becoming a tropical depresssion on the 8th December 2005 at 1000est (advisory 37), there were 21 advisories where Epsilon was reported as a hurricane. Of those 21 advisories, only 3 of them predicted that Epsilon would still be a hurricane by the time of the next advisory. That, to my mind, was wishcasting in the extreme.

We have seen 3 hybrid systems this year, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that we could see the same number, if not more, over the coming seasons. Vince was the first tropical system to make landfall in Europe, then Delta came ashore in north Africa after battering the Canaries. What happens in the future when a storm forms in the west central Atlantic and threatens to make landfall in New York as a major hurricane? I know that seems somewhat far-fetched at the moment but, what if? Well, I know what the experts would say - 'that's impossible!', and I would say - 'something can only be termed impossible before it actually happens'. From it's formation as a hybrid storm, on an unprecedented westerly track, what would we possess in our knowlege-base to help us understand how it came to be, and what to expect of it? I believe we would be at a complete loss, and any predictions would be 'as credible' as predicting the lottery.

Well, it now looks like the end is almost in sight as Hurricane Epsilon de-intensifies at last to become Tropical Storm Epsilon. Epsilon is tracking southwest at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 65mph. I should think the NHC are finally breathing a sigh of relief, and who can blame them. With hindsight, it all seems like a waste of effort, tracking a storm that affects no-one. But, that's their remit, and they have to abide by the rules like everyone else. All I can say is 'Well done guys, you stayed the course, and even towards the end you maintained your sense of humour'.

Check out the northeast-southwest corridor that Hurricane Epsilon is now tracking through, and still packing winds of 75mph. This really is one tenacious b*.

Hurricane Epsilon is now running the gauntlet as it manoeuvers southwest between a mid-level ridge to it's northwest and a developing trough to it's southeast. Epsilon continues to maintain it's intensisty despite intense wishcasting by the NHC for it to weaken and die. Looking at the current weather pattern, I'd say that they could be right to believe that epsilon might continue it's current track for the next three days, but I'd go further and say that I think it's intensity could fluctuate also, both UP as well as down.

Hurricane Epsilon retains it's 75mph intensity yet again, and is now tracking to the southwest at 12mph. And the joyous sound of hope rings out from the NHC team.."THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS...". Pour souls! Epsilon really has extended their season dramatically, and I think the death of it is going to be an occasion to celebrate.

Hurricane Epsilon still at 75mph and now tracking to the south-southwest at 10mph. According to the NHC, Epsilon's core is being sheltered from the upper low and associated shear, and this is helping it to maintain good organisation and full wrap-around convection. It appears that the gods are still shining favourably on Hurricane Epsilon.

Hurricane Epsilon has finally turned south and retains it's 75mph intensity, although it's lost a lot of it's organisation since yesterday. Movement is to the south at 5mph and a turn to the southwest is predicted within 24 hours. The latest NHC discussion is brief and telling.."I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY... AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT..".

The NHC now feel reasonably confident that Hurricane Epsilon has begun it's turn to the south. Intensity has dropped a tad to 75mph and they state that Epsilon is tracking southeast at 3mph, although it's motion has become somewhat erratic as it gradually loses it's westerly steering. Epsilon does appear to have lost some of it's definition over the last 6 hours as the HNC have stated, and is getting to look a little bit ragged, although we have seen this many times of late, only for Epsilon to bounce back again on the next advisory. There's also a hint of frustration and weariness in the words of the NHC's last couple of advisories, that suggests they are not going to be too upset to see the back of Epsilon.

Well, it looks like Hurricane Epsilon may now be getting ready to make that long overdue turn to the south. Intensity remains high as does Epsilon's signature. The NHC now believe that Epsilon has been living on temperature differential alone over the last couple of days i.e. relatively cool SST's but even colder temperatures at the 200mb level, and that is something I would agree with. There is now a very good possibility that Epsilon will decay over the next 48 hours as it begins to track south then southwest and becomes more susceptible to shear. But, hey, who knows? Epsilon has managed to fool everyone up to this point - who's to say that it can't do so for a bit longer.

Hurricane Epsilon continues to defy the world's best tropical weather experts by tracking towards the east-southeast at 10mph and edging ever closer to the Canaries. Epsilon shrugs off the westerlies, and the cooler SST's and the building pressure systems to yet again up the intensity stakes to an impressive 80mph. The image shows that Epsilon is looking even better, with an array of thunderstorms surrounding 50% of it's large, well defined eye. The NHC's latest comment just about sums it up.."I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON...".

Hurricane Epsilon continues on it's track towards the east at 12mph. Intensity is down slightly since the last advisory at 80mph. The NHC have stated that the fast moving westerly low that was predicted to capture Epsilon has passed by without any effect, and that Epsilon will not now go extratropical as expected.

Well, looks like the NHC may have mis-calculated the intensity of Epsilon at the 4am advisory. Hurricane Epsilon continues to move east at 12mph with maximum sustained winds of 85mph, the highest intensity so far. And, I would say that Epsilon may have a little more left in it in view of it's organisation and general profile. We may see Epsilon intensify a little further over the next 12 hours before the weakening forecast by the NHC begins.

As of 4am the NHC have downgraded Hurricane Epsilon to a tropical storm. I really find that hard to believe whilst looking at the above image. The hurricane-type features are just too compelling and other Navymil images for around the same time have them marked as 75kts. Now, either the NHC were wrong at 4am (EST) or, since that time Epsilon has re-intensified. We will have to wait for the 10am to find out. Epsilon is still tracking east at 13mph, the NHC quoted winds being 70mph, some way short of 75kts.

Well, first Tropical Storm Delta hits the Canaries and now we have Hurricane Epsilon lining them up too! Epsilon continues to track east at 13mph with maximum sustained winds of 70mph. There has been a slight drop in intensity since the last advisory, but it still looks remarkably healthy on satellite imagery considering the conditions. Check out the track now on the Hurricane Epsilon Tracking page.

Hurricane Epsilon intensifies as it continues to track east at 12mph. And, as the NHC put it "...EPSILON STRENGTHENS AGAINST ALL ODDS...". That just about says it all - the NHC are as surprised as anyone that Hurricane Epsilon could intensify under even the most trying conditions out in the middle of the north Atlantic at the beginning of December. It's turning out to be an even more incredible season than anyone would have believed as late as the middle of November. I think Epsilon is beginning to make a lot of people think that, 'maybe we don't understand tropical weather as much as we think we do?'

And to cap it all, NHC are now saying that they think Epsilon will indeed turn towards the south then southwest.

Hurricane Epsilon has the NHC and everyone else on the back foot again. The HNC describe Epsilon as "..A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS..." as it continues to maintain it's 75mph hurricane status over the cooler waters of the central Atlantic. And despite their forecast for Epsilon to go extratropical on a north-easterly track, Epsilon confounds yet again by slowing down and tracking east. HNC now say that Epsilon could even make a turn to the south then another to the southwest later.

Hurricane Epsilon about to go extratropical. Epsilon has been moving over a ridge of warmer than usual SST's in the mid Atlantic for the last 12-18 hours which has allowed it to improve it's organisation. This can clearly be seen in the closed eye (SW quadrant) and the typically banded nature of it's cloud layers.

Look out Cornwall! Hurricane Epsilon's on it's way and should be with you in about 4 days. Epsilon's projected path is aiming directly at the tip of Lands End and it's likely to be moving at in excess of 50mph once it goes extratropical in the next 24 hours. I should say that Epsilon is likely to be a merged low pressure system once it reaches the UK, but hey, let's not nitpick. Check out the Google Earth track on the Hurricane Epsilon Tracking page.

Tropical Storm Epsilon gets a shot of warmer SST energy that takes it up a notch to become Hurricane Epsilon. Epsilon continues to track northeast at an increasing forward speed of 14mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 75mph and I think we can probably expect Epsilon to go extra-tropical sooner than later.

Tropical Storm Epsilon continues to track northeast at 9mph. Maximum sustained winds are 65mph and I think Epsilon's had it's shot at hurricane status and missed. It's now likely to continue on roughly the same track until going extra-tropical.

Tropical Storm Epsilon continues to track northeast at 10mph. Maximum sustained winds have risen to 70mph since the last advisory as Epsilon takes on better organization once again. The NHC state that Epsilon could briefly become a hurricane within the next 6 hours as it encounters some warmer than expected SST's, but they forecast that it will weaken thereafter. The predicted track is still towards the northeast and NHC expect Epsilon to go extra-tropical within 36 hours.

Well, it looks like I may have made the wrong call there. Tropical Storm Epsilon continues to move towards the northeast as the NHC predicted and that's due to a distinct change in the synoptic pattern over the last 6 hours. A stronger westerly flow coming off north America has established itself into the western Atlantic. This flow is pushing both the Epsilon low and the high pressure to the north of it. Both systems are moving generally east while, at the same time, Epsilon and it's parent low are trying to move around the high in a northeasterly motion. So it looks as if Epsilon will continue it's general northeastwards motion as the high slips further east.

Tropical Storm Epsilon continues to rotate within it's parent low in the mid Atlantic. This has caused Epsilon to move further to the east and north resulting in some loss of definition and intensity. According to the NHC, Epsilon is currently moving east-northeast at 12mph with winds of 65mph, although I believe that this may still be part of an overall motion that continues to take it back towards the southwest again for a short time.

It's turned midnight GMT and we now say farewell to the official 2005 Hurricane Season. And what a season it's been. 26 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes and 3 category 5 hurricanes ( Katrina, Rita and Wilma ). And with Tropical Storm Epsilon still spinning in the mid Atlantic and threatening to become a hurricane soon, I think most people are now a bit weary and ready to settle down and prepare for Christmas. But, it would take a very foolish person to believe that there won't be another one or two tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin during December.

So, back to Epsilon. Epsilon has made a slow turn towards the east over the last 6 hours and winds remain at 70mph, although it is quite possible that we could briefly see it become a hurricane over the next few hours. Epsilon is still embedded in a low pressure gyre and is rotating within. The latest turn towards the southeast is, I believe, part of a continuing circular motion within the gyre, and this motion could well continue until Epsilon is once again heading west or southwest. That is just my take on it based upon my observations, so my advice for now is to follow the predictions of the NHC.

Well, sure enough, over the last 6 hours Epsilon has ignored the NHC's forecast to turn north, and has instead turned southwest. Intensity has also increased to 70mph and Epsilon is now moving south-southwest at 7mph. A distinct eye has now formed on Epsilon, although somewhat ragged. The 37Ghz TRMM image shows off Epsilon's developing features very well.

Today is the last day of the 2005 Hurricane Season, as if you didn't know? Tell that to Tropical Storm Epsilon which has other ideas. Epsilon continues to move west in the mid Atlantic, stubbornly refusing to turn northeast as predicted. And as Epsilon slowly edges towards Bermuda and increases in intensity we wonder, yet again, whether this storm is going to confound everyone including the NHC. This is a subtropical storm, sitting under and part of a low pressure system. It's movement is being controlled by a high pressure system to the north that is expected to slip east, but how soon that happens is going to decide the motion of Epsilon. The SST's (Sea Surface temperatures) in this part of the ocean at this time of the year are not too shoddy at around 22 degrees Celsius. That, combined with relatively much cooler air aloft may allow Epsilon to intensify even further, and it may only be a matter of time before we see Hurricane Epsilon. At the moment, it has maximum sustained winds of 65mph (NHC correction).

Tropical Storm Epsilon continues to wander around the mid Atlantic. Sustained winds remain at 50mph and track is still west at 8mph. The NHC have revised their forecast for Delta and now have it at 75kts by midday Wednesday (GMT).

Tropical Storm Epsilon moves slowly west in the mid Atlantic towards Bermuda, although NHC stress that Epsilon will make a turn towards the northeast later in the period. Epsilon's sustained winds are now 50mph.

System 96L becomes the 26th named storm of the 2005 hurricane season as it becomes more organized - Tropical Storm Epsilon. At 1000est the NHC made the expected pronouncement that System 96L was indeed classified as Epsilon with maximum sustained winds of 45mph and that it was moving west at 8mph. They went on to say that they expected it to continue tracking towards the west for the next 18 hours before making a turn to the northeast.

System 96L continues to organize in the mid Atlantic and, as at 1335z, was positioned at coordinates 31.6N 50.0W. This indicates that the system has moved towards the west over the last 12 hours. Sustained winds for 96L are now shown by the latest satellite imagery to be 40kts. As stated earlier, if this system is classified by the NHC then it will become Tropical Storm Epsilon, the 26th named storm of the 2005 hurricane season.

BEWARE: With Delta moving at 50mph and winds of 55kts, the effective windspeed in the NE quadrant i.e. to the south, will be equivalent to 113mph which is hurricane category 3 strength.

STATUS: Tracking Tropical Storm Delta.

25th November, 2005 News

Well, after meandering around the mid-Atlantic for a couple of days it looks like Tropical Storm Delta is developing some steering that's going to move it towards the northeast as we suggested on Wednesday. The NHC have Delta currently moving southwest still, although that's probably somewhat erratic, since their latest predictions now have it tracking up towards the Azores then bending off towards the Canaries late in the forecast period as a tropical storm. Might we be seeing the second tropical cyclone this season making landfall in mainland Europe? Only time will tell, remember Hurricane Vince? And here's an NHC map as a little reminder..

Tropical Storm Delta is on the move again and, unexpectedly, it's moving south at near 6mph, although NHC expect this motion to be erratic. Maximum sustained winds remain at 70mph, so no Hurricane Delta just yet.

Tropical Storm Delta is now stationary, not far from it's last reported coordinates. Delta retains it's winds of 70mph and the NHC still believe that Delta will make it into a hurricane before long.

Tropical Storm Delta continues to make slow progress through the mid-Atlantic, as it's movement is constrained by the larger low it is embedded in. The HNC believe that Delta may achieve hurricane status some time today as it tracks slowly east at 2mph with current maximum sustained winds of 70mph.

Tropical Storm Delta continues to be embedded in and rotating counter-clockwise inside the larger low, and is slowly moving towards a north-easterly direction. Mid level shear is quite strong to the southeast and the current steering is generally towards the northeast. Delta should now take a bit of a run towards the northeast and edge up towards the Azores over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Delta materialises out of weather system 95L with a distinct profile. Tropical Storm Delta is being reported by the NHC as moving south-southeast at 9mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Delta poses no threat to the US and is expected to become an extratropical feature towards the end of next week as it moves towards Europe.

Weather system 95L has become more defined over the last 24 hours and now appears to have detached itself from the associated low. With high pressure blocking it's route to the north it looks as if it might start moving towards the southwest and making the transition from it's obvious sub-tropical form into it's tropical form over the next 24 hours. Since it's winds have already been assessed as tropical storm force, when the NHC  classifies it as they undoubtedly will, 95L will become Tropical Storm Delta.

For the last few days a weather system has been tracking slowly through the mid Atlantic. This system presently has sub-tropical properties and is expected to become tropical in the next day or so. Should that turn out to be the case then we will have Tropical Storm Delta on our hands and any hope of an end to the season will evaporate again.

Hurricane Delta - to-be is presently located around coordinates 30N 40W and is looking quite healthy as can be seen in the image opposite. If 95L does indeed morph into Hurricane Delta then it will be the 25th named storm of the 2005 hurricane season.

Tropical Depression Gamma has now dissipated into a remnant low pressure area, and that is the last advisory issued by the NHC for Gamma. Our thoughts go out to all those families in Honduras that are missing loved ones or that are suffering hardship as a result of Tropical Storm Gamma.

Tropical Storm Gamma spun off the Honduras coast for two days and pulverized the north of the country. President Ricardo Maduro told journalists in El Progreso that the damage along all the northern coast was terrible and that people were on the roofs of their homes due to flooding. Gamma's heavy rains have been linked to the deaths of at least twelve people in Honduras. Reuters reported that about 60 percent of El Progreso was under water. El Progreso is situated on a river near the northern Honduras coast and has 200,000 inhabitants.

Tropical Storm Gamma is still just north of the Honduras coast and has decreased in intensity as expected. The latest NHC advisory as of 0600CST has downgraded Gamma to a Tropical Depression and it looks as if Gamma will soon be dissipating. This will be the final tracking map for Tropical Storm Gamma. And here's hoping we don't see any more Greek letters this season!!

Tropical Storm Gamma is now on the move towards the northeast at 6mph with sustained winds of 45mph. The NHC expect no further intensification tonight and stress that Gamma's movement can be expected to be erratic.

It appears that Tropical Storm Gamma has been quietly meandering around the western Caribbean for the last 24 hours confusing everyone including the NHC, confounding all the computer models, and generally making a nuisance of itself. It now looks like it might either 1) break up of it's own accord, or 2) get gobbled up by the low and associated front that is steadily moving down into the area. Like I said in the last report, time will tell. Anyone still think it's gonna hit Florida?

Despite what the NHC are saying in terms of it's motion, Tropical Storm Gamma appears, at the moment, to be moving back towards it's original position (check the plot). There has been no further intensification of Gamma overnight with maximum sustained winds estimated at 45mph. There is still the possibility that Gamma could remain in this area until getting wiped out by the approaching cold front. Time will tell. What do you think? Mail Us

Tropical Storm Gamma continues to move towards the west at 5mph and is slowly intensifying. The NHC is predicting that Gamma will cross near to the Florida Keys by early Monday evening then fly up the coast into a approaching cold front.

System 27L has now been re-classified by the NHC as Tropical Storm Gamma. Gamma is some 38 miles north of the Honduras coast and tracking west-northwest at 5mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph.

System 27L and low 93L are just north of the Honduras coast, still considered separate entities by the Navymil, but the consensus now appears to see these as a merged system that is about to intensify and move north across southern Florida or northeast across Cuba then up the coast. The NHC are still sitting on the fence on this one, and issued another special tropical disturbance statement this morning at 0900EST reporting that 27L was better organized and that it could develop into a tropical storm some time today. A recon is scheduled for this afternoon, and sources suggest that we will again have a tropical depression, or possibly a tropical storm which would, of course, be declared as Tropical Storm Gamma.

According to the Navy military, weather system 93L has merged with the remnants of 27L and they are again reporting the system as 27L. Their latest pass revealed that there is still some circulation off the coast, but that it is weak and well removed from the significant convection. The NHC appear to be hedging their bets on this one by releasing a special tropical disturbance statement. This states that they believe we could still get a tropical depression out of 27L - or 93L depending on how you look at it - over the next couple of days, although their language seems to indicate that they are not too certain.

Weather system 93L continues to move around the southwestern Caribbean and is still the subject of an investigation by the US military. Most sources are at odds as to whether this system will become a prominent feature over the next couple of days, or whether it will move over Nicaragua and Honduras and rain itself out. From what I've seen of it over the last couple of days I'm of the opinion that it might just stay out at sea, get a bit more organized, then get classified by the NHC as Tropical Depression 28.

As far as the further outlook is concerned it looks unlikely to gain tropical cyclone status due to some unfavourable conditions that are beginning to develop. It seems that Hurricane Gamma is turning out to be an elusive beast. What do you think? Mail Us

Tropical Depression 27 is now dead in the water. The NHC believe that TD27 has dissipated, and have therefore ceased issuing advisories as of 1000EST.

A weather system that has been mulling around the southwestern Caribbean for the last couple of days is under investigation by the US military and has been codenamed 93L. This is beginning to assert itself somewhat, and looks to be an interesting proposition for classification by the NHC shortly. It's likely to bring increasing amounts of rain to Nicaragua and Honduras as it slowly intensifies, and possibly moves inland over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression 27 continues west but it has become further disorganized and it's closed circulation has all but disappeared. The NHC believe that TD27 could dissipate today, therefore I have suspended tracking pending further news.

Tropical Depression 27 continues to edge west but it is still poorly organized. The NHC believes that, over time, conditions will become more favourable for further development, although that pre-supposes that continuing, but reducing wind shear will not destroy it first.

Tropical Depression 27 continues to track towards the west as a loosely organized system that is being badly affected by westerly shear. The NHC predicts that it will continue on this westerly track for the next five days, and expect it to develop very slowly into Tropical Storm Gamma, although it's chances of attaining hurricane status appear to be quite remote at the moment. Since there is now a good opportunity of this becoming 'Gamma' this site will begin Google Earth tracking from 14th November, 1000EST.

It looks like newly formed Tropical Depression 27 might get a shot at the title of Hurricane Gamma in a couple of days time. TD27 is currently in the southeast Caribbean and moving northwest, just to the east of the Windward Islands. The NHC expect it to make Tropical Storm status soon, but they are not yet forecasting it to become a hurricane.

Hurricane Beta has deintensified to a Tropical Storm as it moves west across Nicaragua. Beta is maintaining a speed of 7mph with winds of 65mph and is expected to dissipate over western Nicaragua overnight. First reports suggest that there have been no deaths attributed to Beta which is very good to hear, and little in the way of damage has been reported in mainland Nicaragua altough some structural damage was done to roofs in Providencia. This will more than likely be the final Beta tracking map as it becomes a Tropical Depression.

According to the NHC latest advisory at 1pm eastern time, Hurricane Beta is moving towards the west-southwest at 7mph. Maximum sustained winds have abated to 75mph making Beta a category 1 hurricane. Beta is expected to weaken to a Tropical Storm during the afternoon and dissipate over Nicaragua by tommorow.

Hurricane Beta comes ashore on the eastern Nicaraguan coast as a {correction} category 2 storm near La Barra at 7am eastern time. Sustained winds are now 105mph and Beta is moving southwest at 7mph.{end correction} A large evacuation of Cabezas has been taking place since it became obvious that Beta's approach was from the northeast.

The NHC has Hurricane Beta about to make landfall as a category 3 storm with sustained winds of 115mph and moving west-southwest at 8mph.

The latest NHC news for 11pm eastern time reports that Hurricane Beta is now a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105mph and tracking west at 5mph. It also advises that Beta could strengthen further and become a major category 3 hurricane before landfall on the east coast of Nicaragua.

The latest NHC advisory at 8pm eastern time reports that Hurricane Beta is heading towards the Nicaragua coast at 5mph with winds of 90mph, and that it is still expected to strengthen before landfall. Unless a complete evacuation of the 90 mile coastal strip within the predicted swathe is carried out quickly there is going to be a severe risk to human life in the coming hours.

This hurricane resembles Stan in many ways and, as most will recall, Stan caused dreadful loss of life from mudslides even though it was only classified as a Tropical Storm as it approached the Oaxaca mountain range. The topography in this part of Nicaragua is very similar i.e. a fairly flat coastal floodplain on the eastern side with a north-south mountain range of 2000ft 90 miles inland. Beta will get squeezed up against the mountains and unleash it's copious rainfall which will more than likely get pushed north and south. Couple that with a significant expected storm surge and we have a potentially very serious situation.

This scenario looks somewhat like that of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 where 3000 people lost their lives in Nicaragua. 7 years on and the village of Siuna is still recovering from Mitch with the help of Oxfam.

The latest NHC updated news report puts Hurricane Beta 75 miles east of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua and on a track to make landfall on the east Nicaraguan coast. Hurricane Beta has sustained winds of 90mph and is moving west at 5mph. Most of the region at the predicted landfall consists of jungle and lagoons, and appears to be very sparsely populated for up to 90 miles inland of the coast.

At 2pm eastern time Hurricane Beta was moving west at 5mph with maximum sustained winds of 90mph. Beta is expected to make category 2, and possibly even category 3 before landfall along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua.

Cerro Pia lies in the north-to-south mountain region of north-central Nicaragua. The villages in this region could suffer very severely from Beta's expected very high rainfall, and dangerous mudslides appear to be inevitable.

Tropical Storm Beta has turned to the northwest overnight and intensified into a hurricane category 1 with maximum sustained winds of 80mph. The expectations are that Hurricane Beta will move erratically over the next 24 hours since steering currents are weak. Beta will move very slowly or may become stationary. It is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane, possibly before landfall along the east coast of Nicaragua. Reports from the Columbian Meteorological Service continue to indicate that Hurricane Beta has caused extensive damage to homes on Providencia island and that there are still no communications with the island.

The NHC state that storm surge of 7 to 10 feet is still possible for Providencia and that Nicaragua can expect it to be 10 to 13 feet above normal tide levels along the eastern coast near and to the north of where Beta makes landfall. Beta is expected to bring torrential rain to northeastern Honduras, Nicaragua, San Andres and Providencia with totals of 10 to 15 inches and isolated amounts to a maximum of 20 inches. Providencia may get up to 25 inches.

Tropical Storm Beta has been moving north-northeast, despite the expected turn to the northwest, and is also moving a little quicker. The NHC forecast still has Beta making hurricane status within the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Beta strengthens more but is moving around ever so slowly in the same area. Beta now has sustained winds of 65mph and is still expected to gain hurricane status within 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Beta appears to be strengthening quickly. Beta is moving north at 2mph with sustained winds of 50mph. The latest NHC advisory has Beta reaching hurricane status within 24 hours. They have added to the expected rainfall amounts to include Honduras since the expected forecast track has turned somewhat more northerly.

System 90L became Tropical Storm Beta overnight and is currently off the east coast of Nicaragua moving northwest at 5mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. Beta is expected to grow in strength over the next 24 hours and to bring 10 to 15 inches of rainfall to western Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Tropical Storm Alpha is downgraded to Tropical Depression Alpha as it passes over the Dominican Republic. However, the NHC state that it could well be upgraded to Tropical Storm status once again as it moves off land and back over the sea sometime later today. This is the final tracking map for Tropical Storm Alpha.

Tropical Storm Alpha is approaching the Dominican Republic and is expected to make landfall there within the next 12 hours with winds of 50mph.

The successor to Hurricane Wilma, Tropical Storm Alpha becomes the 22nd named Tropical Storm this season and breaks the all-time record of 21 storms in a season by beating the existing record of 21 set in 1933.

The successor to Hurricane Wilma may already be on the way! Tropical Depression 25 is moving west-northwest at 13mph through the Atlantic Ocean, about 200 miles southwest of San Juan Puerto Rico. It's predicted track is expected to take it over the middle of the Dominican Republic, then curve it over the Bahamas and up to the northeast of Bermuda by 8am Tuesday. Check the track NOW

I have provided the first Google Earth plot for TD25 on the download page. I shall provide no further tracking of TD25 until it attains Tropical Storm force. Should it fail to do so, then all data associated with it will be removed from this site until another storm comes along which rightfully takes the name 'Hurricane Alpha'.

Hurricane Wilma has gone extratropical and begun to merge with the cold front. The NHC have ceased to issue advisories on Hurricane Wilma, therefore this site will now discontinue all tracking of Wilma from this point. This is the final tracking map for Hurricane Wilma

Hurricane Wilma still flying up the east coast. NHC have issued a map this time since Wilma comes close to land at 42.0N. At that position there may be some interaction and she still has winds of 105mph which is category 2.

Hurricane Wilma is now flying along up the east coast with no chance of interacting with land according to the NHC, hence their reason for not issuing a prediction map. She's travelling at a racy 53mph but has de-intensified to 115mph (still category 3). She is expected to further weaken over the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Wilma is now jetting up the east coast for a clash with a cold weather system pushing down from the northwest. Will be interesting to see who wins.

Hurricane Wilma continues to barrel northeast across Florida as a Category 2 storm. After ravaging the Florida Keys and central Florida the eye of Wilma is just about to vacate the northeast coast near West Palm Beach. Her path will now take her up the northeast coast at 25mph with sutained winds of 105mph.

0700EDT: Hurricane Wilma comes ashore approximately 10 miles south-southeast of Naples and 25mls west-northwest of Everglades City as a Category 3 Storm. Wilma is moving northeast at 23mph with sustained winds of 120mph

0300EDT: The NHC position at 2am was wrong so it has been removed. Wilma is still a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. Looks like landfall is going to be southeast of Naples.

0200EDT: I would take the 2am position of Wilma with a pinch of salt - 45 miles in 1 hour??

0000EDT: Hurricane Wilma, Category 3, moving northeast at 18mph with winds 115mph.

Looks like storm surge off the Florida Keys is going to be anything from 20 to 40 feet. I just hope they stop partying there and try to get somewhere safe, if that's even possible now.

2300EDT: Hurricane Wilma, Category 3 now moving northeast at 18mph with winds 115mph.

Hurricane Wilma now moving at 15mph with winds 110mph (borderline Category 3). Now publishing Google Earth track plot every hour as per NHC advisories.

Hurricane Wilma is speeding up as she heads for Florida. Wilma is now travelling at 14mph with sustained winds of 105mph. She is expected to make landfall in the early hours of Monday morning.

Hurricane Wilma is in the Gulf of Mexico heading towards the central Florida coastline. It's position is just off the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and has now increased it's forward speed to 5mph. The NHC expects Wilma to increase it's speed over the next 24 hours. Hurricane Wilma is a category 2 storm with sustained winds of 100mph and this is forecast to increase during today.

The death toll from Hurricane Wilma has now risen to at least 15. 12 of those deaths were already reported from Jamaica and Haiti, with a further 3 reported in Playa del Carmen and Cancun. Damage and flooding has been severe in the Mexican towns of Cozumel and Cancun. Many power lines, traffic lights, signs and trees have been blown down in the 140mph winds. The governor of the state admitted that some buildings which were classed as 'hurricane proof' have been badly damaged by Wilma. Over the rest of the Yucatan it's still hard to say how much damage and flooding has occurred, but over the next couple of days it should become clearer as people return to their homes and assess the situation.

Hurricane Wilma finally breaks free from the Yucatan and is now heading for the central Florida coastline. Wilma is a category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100mph and is travelling at 3mph. Landfall is expected within 24 hours.

Well, it looks as if Wilma (a category 3 Hurricane) is about to leave the Yucatan Peninsula west of Cancun on a northeasterly track after making generally slow progress for the last 24 hours.

Wilma is currently stationary or moving very slowly over the Yucatan as a category 3 hurricane. Progress will be very slow until she turns back out to sea. Expect to see her continue to deposit copious amounts of water over the region and weaken somewhat during today. The swell produced in the Gulf of Mexico by Wilma is expected to cross and make landfall at positions along the northern coast sometime today.

1915CDT : Hurricane Wilma makes landfall north of Cozumel as a category 4 hurricane. The eye of Wilma passed almost directly over the island of Cozumel and is now expected to de-intensify as she comes into contact with land. Wilma is expected to remain over the Yucatan most of Saturday before making a predicted turn onto a north-easterly path. Check out the Skeetobite spaghetti models via the above link - just click on the map.

0930CDT : Hurricane Wilma is about to make landfall at Cozumel on the Yucatan peninsula as a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145mph. This position is approximately 45 miles south-southwest of the popular beach resort of Cancun. The eye of Hurricane Wilma is very large and is expected to pass right over the island of Cozumel and Cancun. Wilma is expected to dump over 20ins of rain over many parts of the Yucatan with some higher areas of western Cuba receiving up to 40ins later.

It is now known that the death toll from Hurricane Wilma has risen to a minimum of 12. Deaths occurred in both Haiti and Jamaica. Expect the death toll to rise significantly over the next 12 to 24 hours as Wilma very slowly passes through the Yucatan. The National Hurricane Center in Florida expects Hurricane Wilma to fluctuate in intensity over the next several hours.

Hurricane Wilma moves inexorably closer to the northeast Yucatan peninsula and, from recent infrared images, appears to be strengthening again. The storm surge can be expected to be significant, and severe flooding is likely in many low lying areas, especially close to the mexican coast. It's also likely that western parts of Cuba will bear the brunt of Wilma's force as soon as she makes the anticipated northeast turn into the Gulf of Mexico. The next 24 hours are likely to see large amounts of damage within the Yucatan Strait region.

Well, it looks almost certain now that the northeast Yucatan is about to take a battering from Hurricane Wilma. The mexican tourist resort of Cancun lies on the very northeast tip, so I'm hoping that all the tourists have already made it out of there. Cancun is a beautiful location for a holiday, but I certainly would not want to be there now. Wilma is a category 4 hurricane now with maximum sustained winds of 150mph. The NHC predict that she could regain category 5 strength again as she approaches the Yucatan, that's winds in excess of 155mph with stronger gusts. Together with 7 - 11ft storm surge above normal levels and dangerous battering waves this makes for an extremely dangerous situation in low-level coastal locations which are typical of this region.

Hurricane Wilma has now been pushing west-northwest for the past 45 hours and confounding everyone's predictions about turning northwest then northeast. Important : that's not to say that she won't eventually. At the moment she is heading directly towards the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and many sources are now stating that Wilma will make landfall in Cancun. After watching the maps for the last 24 hours and preparing the Google plots, I have to say that I agree with those sources, unless she suddenly decides to make a left turn sometime soon. Remember, for the most part hurricanes are unpredictable beasts that can suddenly do just what you never expected.

Well, it's been a tense day today with Hurricane Wilma continuing to push northwest towards the Gulf of Mexico. For a time Wilma's track looked somewhat unusual as her eye appeared to be bouncing around. I established that this was part of her eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) where the inner eye begins to break down and is subsequently replaced by the outer eye. Under these conditions the storm's track becomes erratic as the eye oscillates around a point causing the eye to perform a small loop before regaining it's original track. Each oscillation causes some of the storm's energy to be lost and these losses tally up over time resulting in an overall decrease in the storm's intensity. As a result of this ERC Hurricane Wilma suffered a reduction in her maximum sustained winds which took her down to 160mph, down from her previous 175mph before the ERC.

Wilma has now settled back into a more stable track and is currently tracking towards Cozumel on the Yucatan Peninsula at near 7mph with sustained winds of 155mph. Wilma's intensity is now likely to fluctuate which is common for category 4 hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma is considered extremely dangerous by the National Hurricane Centre and anyone on the projected path should monitor the NHC's forecasts and warnings.

In terms of Wilma's predicted track, the NHC had problems today with their computer models which left them somewhat embarrassed; the computer projections were indicating tracks that differed from the previous model runs. Eventually, they determined what the problem had been and made an appearance on CNN to explain the situation. I believe the models are now aligned again and giving a projected path that passes near the eastern tip of the Yucatan then across the Gulf of Mexico towards southwest Florida. It is still relatively early days to state categorically that Wilma will hit southern Florida since there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in these projections. But it goes without saying that, as stated earlier, everyone on the projected path must take absolute notice of the official warnings and be prepared to evacuate should it be deemed necessary.

0800EDT: Hurricane Wilma continued to intensify and by 5am she was a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 175mph. By 8am a reconnaisance aircraft that passed through Wilma reported a record (unofficial as yet) low barometric pressure of 881mb. The NHC stress that further instrument calibration tests are required before this pressure can be made official. The NHC are now using very strong terms to describe Hurrican Wilma: Quote: WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS. The NHC predict that Wilma will make landfall on the southwest coast of Florida by 2am on Sunday.

At 0100EDT the NHC published Special Advisory #15 stating that Hurricane Wilma has intensified to a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150mph. Further intensification to category 5 is expected later today. The rapid intensification is exceptional and has taken everyone by surprise by it's suddeness. Hurricane Wilma is now looking exceptionally dangerous and all necessary precautions should be taken sooner than later by all those living on her projected path.

2300EDT: Hurricane Wilma continues to intensify as she tracks west-northwest at 8mph. With sustained winds of 110mph and further intensification expected in the next 6 hours to Category 3, Hurricane Wilma is becoming a major hurricane that everyone in Florida needs to watch very carefully.

2000EDT: Rapid intensification of Hurricane Wilma takes her to category 2 Hurricane status. Hurricane Wilma now has sustained winds of 100mph and is moving west-northwest at 8mph. Hurricane Wilma is expected to further intensify within the next 3 hours and reach category 3 intensity with sustained winds in excess of 110mph.

Tropical Storm Wilma finally makes it to Hurricane Wilma as a category 1 storm. Hurricane Wilma packs maximum sustained winds of 75mph and is moving northwest at 7mph. Wilma is expected to further intensify before entering the gulf by 0800edt Friday.

[EDIT] Just checked the plots again and I would say that the NHC's speed for Hurricane Wilma is on the conservative side at 7mph. I would put it at something more than 11mph. It could be in the Gulf faster than their current predictions so watch out.

Tropical Storm Wilma is again stationary. According to the latest NHC advisory she is not going anywhere for the next few hours. I'm afraid this means she is probably going to intensify even further before entering the gulf. Currently, Tropical Storm Wilma has maximum sustained winds of 70mph which is a whisker short of hurricane category 1 status. Wilma has been sitting in this general location for quite a while now, and it would be great if she could just continue to churn away there using up all the available energy before steering returns, then expire. Just hopeful..

It's 2300EDT and Tropical Storm Wilma is finally on the move to the west at a steady but sure 2mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 65mph which is approaching hurricane force so every one should now be on their guard. Chances are that Wilma will start to speed up now she's heading west and a turn to the northwest will put her on track for the Gulf.

It's 2000EDT and it looks like Tropical Storm Wilma is gearing up to make a turn to the west. NHC has been forecasting a track to the west then northwest for the last two days now but Wilma has stubbornly refused to turn off her generally southern path. It looks like things may be getting a little more favourable for going west, but if she stays just west for any length of time as opposed to north of west then her path may allow some of her energy to be dissipated over northern Honduras.

It's official. Tropical Depression 24 is now classified by the NHC as Tropical Storm Wilma. Wilma is still churning her way very slowly through the Caribbean to the south of Cuba. As a Tropical Storm she now carries maximum sustained winds of 40mph. Moving to the southwest at 3mph Wilma is not expected to get anywhere soon. It's probably going to take 2 or 3 days before getting into the GOM, assuming nothing comes along before then that upsets her organisation, so stay vigilant.

We have already seen 20 named storms this season, the last being Hurricane Vince. Now, with Wilma becoming the 21st Tropical Storm this season, and the last name in the list ( names beginning with Q, U, X, Y, Z are not used ), it's time to go to Greek letters. That means that should further Tropical Storms or Hurricanes develop before the end of the 2005 season which ends on the 30th November then the NHC would name them 'Alpha', 'Beta' etc. And that would make 2005 the busiest season on record beating the existing record for the 1933 season which had 21 named storms. But...Hurricane Alpha? Does anyone think that sounds a bit clinical and characterless? I certainly do, and I would hope that the authorities find a better naming convention before the 2006 Hurricane Season.

Vince finally comes ashore 8 miles west-southwest of Huelva in southern Spain as a Tropical Depression. This is quite amazing. It is the first ever Tropical Cyclone to come ashore in mainland Europe. Vince is moving east-northeast at 24mph with maximum sustained winds of 35mph. This is the final tracking map for Hurricane Vince.

Amazingly, Tropical Storm Vince is making landfall on the southern coast of Portugal/Spain with winds of 45mph. Will quickly fade as it starts to move over land and is expected to be downgraded to a Tropical Depression within the next six hours.

Tropical Storm Vince is moving east-northeast at 25mph and is expected to make landfall as a Tropical Depression some time tonight, somewhere over southern Portugal.

Hurricane Vince is downgraded to a Tropical Storm as it moves to the east-northeast at 12mph. Maximum sustained winds of 60mph are expected to abate as Vince dissipates over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Vince attains hurricane status at 1700edt with maximum sustained winds of 75mph. Check progress on the Hurricane Vince tracking page with Google Earth. Hurricane Vince is becoming a bit of an anomaly in respect of it's very easterly position and the fact that it is moving over relatively cool waters (less that 25 degrees Celsius). Vince is not expected to maintain hurricane status for very long (according to the established rules) and because it is expected to be gobbled-up by a front moving in from the northwest.

For the last couple of days there has been a system between the Canary Islands and the Azores that looked to have tropical features. This system has developed and organised over those two days and has now been classified as Tropical Storm Vince. Vince is currently moving northeast at 5mph with maximum sustained winds of 50mph. It's predicted track will take it towards the northwestern coast of Spain. As yet, there is still some doubt as to whether Vince will attain hurricane status (maximum sustained winds in excess of 73mph).

The death toll from Hurricane Stan in Central America continues to rise as it passes the 750 mark. Reports now state that the final figure may never be known as rescue efforts in some areas come to an end due to the dangers posed. The intention now is to declare as mass graves those sites of villages that are completely covered in thousands of tons of drying mud.

It appears now that Hurricane Stan had a bigger impact than was first stated. Stan has been reported to have been the cause of 610 deaths in southern Mexico and Central America, the majority being in Guatemala close to the Mexican border. More bodies are being recovered daily and the death toll is slowly rising as the more romote areas are investigated. According to reports, most of the deaths have been recorded in swollen and overflowing rivers and mudslides. States of emergency have been declared in six Mexican states because of the storm.

Hurricane Stan only reached category 1, but the loss off life looks like it might well exceed the figures quoted for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita put together. A sobering thought.

Hurricane Stan apparently split when it reached the Oaxaca range. Part of it turned back along the gulf coast and eventually resulted in the formation of 93L. The upper part of Stan actually made it across the mountains into the Pacific and can still be seen as a prominent feature.

Well, Hurricane Stan did indeed have an impact in southern central Mexico. Stan spawned numerous storms that spread beyond the Mexican border and caused flash floods, landslides and damage to property. At the last count 66 deaths have been attributed to Stan in Central America although reports of deaths in Mexico are sparse. This is the final tracking map for Hurricane Stan.

Stan, now a Tropical Storm, made landfall on the southern coast of Mexico 15 miles northeast of Tuxtla. He's slowly losing strength as he tracks southwest at 50 mph and is about to expire as he comes up against the towering Oaxaca Mountains (8000ft) in south central Mexico. Forecast to become a Tropical Depression on Wednesday at 0100cdt this is probably the last we've seen of Stan. Now, where's Tammy?

Stan finally makes hurricane status as he approaches the southern Mexico coast as a Category 1 hurricane. Stan's still strengthening and could just tip into Category 2 (96mph+) before making landfall. Stan is likely to fizzle out quickly once he dumps his rainfall along the coast and moves further inland.

Well, Tropical Storm Stan ran out of steam briefly whilst over the Yucatan Peninsula but he's now over water again and heading away from land out into the gulf. He should now slowly pick up from where he left off and, more than likely, attain hurricane status before the Mexican coast, possibly as a category 2 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Stan ( and Hurricane-elect ) appears over the Yucatan Peninsula on track for landfall along the Mexico Gulf Coast. Check the tracking Hurricane Stan links to the left of the page.

The buzz at the moment is all about the twin hurricanes that struck the Gulf of Mexico last month. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were two of the most destructive hurricanes in living memory. On the 29th August Katrina struck New Orleans and the surrounding coastline head-on. Hurricane Katrina was officially up-graded to Category 5 as she made landfall with sustained wind speeds in excess of 155 mph. That was enough to completely decimate the coastline to the east of New Orleans. New Orleans itself fared no better when a storm surge breached the city's levees sending flood waters crashing through the streets of many districts. The loss of life was terrible; upwards of 1000 at the last count. That, together with a lack of immediate aid at the local, state and federal level left survivors in abject misery and suffering, and President Bush's popularity rating at rock bottom.

Just 3 weeks later Hurricane Rita made landfall along the Texas / Louisiana border as a Category 3 hurricane with winds in excess of 111 mph. This was somewhat fortunate in that Rita never made a direct hit on either of the main population centres of Texas ( Houston / Galveston ) or Louisiana ( New Orleans ). Initially, it was believed that there had been no significant loss of life or destruction to property. But, over the next couple of days as crews got to the hardest hit areas, it was discovered that initial estimates for Rita had been on the low side and that some areas had indeed suffered substantial wind and water damage.

I tracked Hurricane Rita on Google Earth from the time it entered the gulf until shortly after making landfall. Check the Hurricane Rita links at the top of the page.