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Hurricane and Tropical Storm Tracking 2013



Latest Files : Watching Karen   Get .kml tracking file
Click on the links. To go to the first news report click on '1st Report'
Andrea Barry Chantal Dorian Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Ingrid Jerry
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Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van
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All data provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The 2013 Hurricane Season

2013 Opening Season Preamble (as at 7th December, 2012)

As usual, we will do our best to track all the active storms in the 2013 hurricane season, so keep checking this page regularly. Hurricane Andrea or Tropical Storm Andrea will be the first of the season when it appears, and we will be ready to track it.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013
Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Median (in parentheses)
Issue Date
10 April 2013
Named Storms (NS) (12.0) 18
Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1) 95
Hurricanes (H) (6.5) 9
Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3) 40
Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0) 4
Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9) 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92) 165
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%) 175
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE
LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20N, 60-88W)
1) 61% (average for last century is 42%)

By Philip J. Klotzbach
and William M. Gray

Here's the list of 2013 contenders.

Andrea,Barry,Chantal,Dorian,Erin,Fernand,Gabrielle,Humberto,Ingrid, Jerry,Karen,Lorenzo,Melissa,Nestor,Olga,Pablo,Rebekah,Sebastien,Tanya,Van,Wendy


The 2013 Hurricane Season.

Total13
Tropical Storms11 Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa,
SubTropical Storms0
Hurricanes2 Humberto, Ingrid,
Major Hurricanes0

2013 Hurricane and Tropical Storm News

NOTE: Latest news is always at the top, earlier news below.



STATUS: Watching Karen, About 65 mi nw of Cabo Catoche Mexico
3rd October, 2013 10:00 News

...Karen a little stronger...

Summary of 1000 am cdt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...22.2n 87.9w
About 65 mi...105 km nw of Cabo Catoche Mexico
About 485 mi...775 km s of the mouth of the Mississippi river
Maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
Present movement...nnw or 330 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb...29.65 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* Grand isle louisiana to Indian pass Florida

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* west of Grand isle to east of Morgan city Louisiana
* metropolitan New Orleans
* lake Maurepas
* lake Pontchartrain

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds...conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Fernand, About 5 mi n of Veracruz Mexico
25th August, 2013 22:00 News

...Fernand continues to strengthen...
...tropical-storm-force winds lashing Veracruz harbor...

Summary of 1000 pm cdt...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.3n 96.2w
About 5 mi...10 km n of Veracruz Mexico
About 140 mi...225 km se of Tuxpan Mexico
Maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
Present movement...w or 280 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/h
Minimum central pressure...1001 mb...29.56 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning for the gulf coast of Mexico north of Barra de Nautla.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* Gulf coast of Mexico from Veracruz northward to Barra de Nautla

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case within the next 6 hours.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Erin, About 245 mi...wsw of the Cape Verde islands
15th August, 2013 17:00 News

Erin moving west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic...

Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...15.0n 27.5w
About 245 mi...390 km wsw of the Cape Verde islands
Maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
Present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
Minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
At 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm Erin was located near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 27.5 west. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed..

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Dorian, about 1670 mi...2690 km e of the northern leeward islands
25th July, 2013 17:00 News

...Dorian maintains its strength as it moves west-northwestward over the open tropical Atlantic...

Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...16.5n 37.8w
About 1670 mi...2690 km e of the northern Leeward islands
Maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
Present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/h
Minimum central pressure...999 mb...29.50 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
At 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 37.8 west. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/h. This general motion is expected to continue tonight...followed by a gradual turn toward the west by late friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours as dorian moves over warmer waters.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb...29.50 inches.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Dorian, About 505 MI...810 km W of the Cape Verde Islands
24th July, 2013 17:00 News

...Dorian moving west-northwestward over the open tropical Atlantic...

Summary of 500 pm edt...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...14.6n 31.4w
About 505 mi...810 km w of the Cape Verde islands
Maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
Present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 20 mph...32 km/h
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
At 500 pm edt...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm Dorian was located near latitude 14.6 north...longitude 31.4 west. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/h...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher gusts. Slight weakening is possible on Thursday as Dorian moves over cooler water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles...75 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Chantal, About 270 mi se of san juan Puerto rico
9th July, 2013 17:00 News

...Chantal heading for Hispaniola...

Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...15.2n 63.7w
About 270 mi...440 km se of san juan Puerto rico
About 470 mi...755 km ese of santo domingo Dominican republic
Maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
Present movement...wnw or 295 degrees at 26 mph...43 km/h
Minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

The government of the Bahamas has issued a tropical storm warning for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and caicos islands... and a tropical storm watch for the central Bahamas.

A tropical storm warning has been extended to include the entire coast of Haiti.

The government of Barbados has discontinued the tropical storm warning for Dominica.

The government of France has discontinued the tropical storm warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a hurricane watch is in effect for...
* Barahona to Samana dominican republic

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* Puerto rico
* entire coast of the Dominican republic
* entire coast of Haiti
* Turks and caicos
* southeastern Bahamas

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* u.s. Virgin islands
* Vieques and Culebra
* central Bahamas

Interests in eastern Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of chantal.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Chantal, About 320 mi ese of Barbados
8th July, 2013 20:00 News

...Reconnaissance aircraft finds Chantal a little stronger...

Summary of 800 pm ast...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...11.8n 55.0w
Aabout 320 mi...515 km ese of Barbados
Maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
Present movement...wnw or 285 degrees at 26 mph...43 km/h
Minimum central pressure...1010 mb...29.82 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
*Dominica
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Puerto rico

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* st. Vincent
* U.s. Virgin islands
* Vieques and Culebra
* southern coast of Dominican republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti

Additional watches and warnings could be required for a portion of the northern Leeward islands later tonight. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of Chantal.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Barry, Approaching Belize
17th June, 2013 11:00 News

...Tropical depression forms...
...approaching coast of Belize...

Summary of 1100 am edt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.2n 87.6w
About 60 mi...95 km e of Monkey river town Belize
Maximum sustained winds...35 mph...55 km/h
Present movement...wnw or 290 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/h
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb...29.77 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 am edt...1500 utc...the center of tropical depression two was estimated near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 87.6 west. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/h. This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center of the depression will move inland over southern Belize this afternoon. The depression could emerge into the bay of Campeche on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/h...with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Some weakening is expected as the depression moves over land later today and tonight. Some increase in strength is possible on Tuesday if the center emerges into the bay of Campeche.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.



NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Barry, Gulf of Mexico
16th June, 2013 20:00 News

For the north Atlantic...Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Nexico...

1. A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over portions of central America and the northwest Caribbean sea are associated with a tropical wave. This system has changed little in organization this afternoon...however some development is possible over the northwest Caribbean sea before the system moves inland over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula Monday afternoon. This disturbance has a medium chance...30 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development...heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Honduras...Guatemala... Belize...and the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Post Tropical Storm Andrea, East Coast
7th June, 2013 20:00 News Update

...Post-tropical Andrea moving rapidly near the mid-Atlantic coast...

Summary of 800 pm edt...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...37.5n 76.0w
About 45 mi...70 km nne of Norfolk Virginia
About 75 mi...120 km sw of Ocean City Maryland
Maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
Present movement...ne or 40 degrees at 35 mph...55 km/h
Minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* Surf city north Carolina to Cape Charles light Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle sounds
* lower Chesapeake bay south of New point comfort

Gale conditions are expected near portions of the u.s. east coast from the Delmarva peninsula northward to southern New Jersey...as well as coastal Rhode island and southeastern Massachusetts. a high wind advisory is in effect for Nantucket Massachusetts.

For additional information...including other inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office at weather.gov.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.

STATUS: Watching Tropical Storm Andrea, East Coast
7th June, 2013 11:00 News Update

...Andrea about to move into north Carolina...

Summary of 1100 am edt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...34.4n 79.5w
About 50 mi...85 km sw of Fayetteville north cCarolina
About 90 mi...150 km w of Wilmington north Carolina
Maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
Present movement...ne or 35 degrees at 28 mph...44 km/h
Minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

The tropical storm warning has been discontinued south of south Santee river south Carolina.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* south Santee river south Carolina to Cape Charles light Virginia
* pamlico and albemarle sounds
* lower Chesapeake bay south of New point comfort

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.

STATUS: Watching Tropical Storm Andrea, East Coast
7th June, 2013 05:00 News

...Andrea racing northeastward along the eastern seaboard...

Summary of 500 am edt...0900 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...32.4n 80.7w
About 30 mi...50 km ne of Savannah georgia
About 50 mi...80 km sw of Charleston south Carolina
Maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
Present movement...ne or 40 degrees at 28 mph...44 km/h
Minimum central pressure...996 mb...29.41 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

A tropical storm warning has been discontinued from Altamaha sound Georgia southward

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* north of Altamaha sound Georgia to Cape Charles light Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle sounds
* lower Chesapeake bay south of New point comfort.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Tropical Storm Andrea, Gulf of Mexico
6th June, 2013 23:00 News

...Andrea weakening slowly as heavy rains continue well away from the center...

Summary of 1100 pm edt...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...30.3n 82.4w
Aabout 40 mi...65 km w of Jacksonville Florida
About 65 mi...105 km ese of Valdosta Georgia
Maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
Present movement...ne or 45 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h
Minimum central pressure...993 mb...29.32 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

The tropical storm warning has been discontinued for the west coast of the Florida peninsula.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* Flagler beach Florida to Cape Charles light Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle sounds
* lower Chesapeake bay south of New point comfort

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.

STATUS: Watching Tropical Storm Andrea, Gulf of Mexico
6th June, 2013 11:00 News

...Tropical storm conditions beginning to move onshore the west coast of Florida...

Summary of 1100 am edt...1500 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...28.2n 84.3w
About 110 mi...180 km w of Tampa Florida
About 110 mi...180 km sse of Apalachicola Florida
Maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
Present movement...ne or 35 degrees at 15 mph...24 km/h
Minimum central pressure...997 mb...29.44 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

none

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the west coast of Florida from Boca Grande to Indian pass
* Flagler beach Florida to Cape Charles light Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle sounds
* lower Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.

STATUS: Watching Tropical Storm Andrea, Gulf of Mexico
6th June, 2013 07:00 News

...Andrea moving closer to the Florida big bend...
...potential for tornadoes across central and southern Florida during the morning...

Fummary of 700 am cdt...1200 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...27.7n 85.1w
About 160 mi...255 km w of tampa florida
About 140 mi...225 km s of apalachicola florida
Maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
Present movement...nne or 25 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
Minimum central pressure...997 mb...29.44 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

none

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

a tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the west coast of Florida from Boca grande to Indian pass
* Flagler beach Florida to Fape charles light Virginia
* Pamlico and Albemarle sounds
* lower Chesapeake bay south of new point comfort

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


STATUS: Watching Andrea, Gulf of Mexico
5th June, 2013 22:00 News

...Heavy rain occurring along the west coast of Florida as Andrea moves northward...

summary of 1000 pm cdt...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...26.0n 86.3w
about 270 mi...430 km wsw of tampa florida
about 270 mi...430 km ssw of apalachicola florida
maximum sustained winds...40 mph...65 km/h
present movement...n or 10 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h
minimum central pressure...1002 mb...29.59 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
Changes with this advisory...

none.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the west coast of Florida from Boca grande to Ochlocknee river

a tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Flagler beach Florida toSurf city north Carolina

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local national weather service forecast office.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.


ARCHIVE MATERIAL ONLY

STATUS: Watching Tropical Storm Sean, 695 km sw of Bermuda
8th November, 2011 20:00 News

...Sean stalls...expected to move northwestward on Wednesday...

Summary of 800 pm ast...0000 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
Location...27.8n 69.8w
About 430 mi...695 km sw of Bermuda
Maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
Present movement...stationary
Minimum central pressure...999 mb...29.50 inches

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

NOTE: This storm will only be tracked if it looks like it might pass over a major populated landmass. Dave Foster.



Track prediction Spaghetti Model Image courtesy of SkeetobiteWeather.com

The Navymil watch developing tropical systems, and perform reconnaisance on them. This development cycle goes through two initial stages - the investigation cycle followed by the reporting cycle.

In the investigation cycle, systems are given a codename beginning at 90, then progessing through 91, 92 etc. for subsequent systems. The L suffix indicates an Atlantic system, the .Invest indicates an investigation. When they get to 99 they start back at the beginning.

During the reporting cycle, when the system has been deemed to have reached tropical depression status, codes 00 to 09 are used with a character-based name suffix.

Once the system has become a tropical depression the National Hurricane Center begins reporting it, and they produce their first forecast and map. The NHC notation for the depression is to use the name 'Tropical Depression ' followed by an uppercase, character-based value. The first depression of the season becomes ONE. By the sixth depression they are using the notation 'Tropical Depression SIX'.


Tropical System codenames used by the Navymil with their NHC equivalents

NavyMil Investigation 90L.Invest 91L.Invest 92L.Invest 93L.Invest 94L.Invest 95L.Invest 96L.Invest 97L.Invest 98L.Invest 99L.Invest
NavyMil Depression 00L.Zero 01L.One 02L.Two 03L.Three 04L.Four 05L.Five 06L.Six 07L.Seven 08L.Eight 09L.Nine
The NHC would use the following : Tropical Depression ONE, Tropical Depression TWO etc...