Hurricane and Tropical Storm Tracking 2012

All data provided by the National Hurricane Center.

The 2012 Hurricane Season

Opening Season Preamble (1st April, 2012)

As usual, we will do our best to track all the active storms in the 2012 hurricane season, so keep checking this page regularly. Hurricane Alberto or Tropical Storm Alberto will be the first of the season when it appears, and we will be ready to track it.

As of January 2012 Drs. Klotzbach and Gray at Colorado State have issued a statement on their 2012 Hurricane Season Forecast.

We have developed a new way of assessing next year’s activity in terms of two primary physical parameters:
1. the strength of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC)
2. the phase of ENSO
We have been in an active era for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones since 1995, and we expect that typical conditions associated with a positive Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) and strong thermohaline circulation (THC) to continue. Several forecast models and a qualitative analysis of current conditions in the tropical Pacific indicate that the odds of an El Niño developing this year are somewhat higher than they have been during the past couple of years. In addition, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) tend to cool following La Niña events (such as we are currently experiencing), and these will also have to be closely monitored for the upcoming hurricane season. We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be primarily determined by the strength of the THC/AMO and by the state of ENSO.

We anticipate four possible scenarios with the probability of each as indicated on the next page:

1. THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance.
2. THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance.
3. THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 30% chance.
4. THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10% chance.

Typically, seasons with the above-listed NTC values have TC activity as follows:
180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

Here's the list of 2012 contenders.

Alberto,Beryl,Chris,Debby,Ernesto,Florence,Gordon,Helene,Isaac,Joyce, Kirk,Leslie,Michael,Nadine,Oscar,Patty,Rafael,Sandy,Tony,Valerie,William

The 2012 Hurricane Season.